🔗 Share this article Can Scotland finally break the All Blacks hoodoo? New Zealand introduced three changes to the squad that overcame Ireland International Rugby Series: Scottish team versus All Blacks Venue: Scottish Gas Murrayfield, the Scottish capital Date: Saturday, 8 November Time: 15:10 GMT The past seemed less complicated. Match number four of the Scottish and New Zealand teams. A packed stadium, a 0-0 draw, January 1964. Euphoria at full-time. A pitch invasion to symbolize the home team's momentous achievement. Having beaten three home nations, New Zealand had finally been halted in a international match. The man from Pathe News was nearly overcome with excitement. "An unforgettable sporting spectacle," he reported breathlessly and somewhat optimistically. "A match in which Scotland saved the honour of Britain." Exiting the ground after the match, Scottish fans would have had hope for the future. Multiple efforts to defeat the All Blacks and zero victories, but clear signs that success might be imminent. Three years later, New Zealand beat the Scots. Five years after that, they beat them again. Three years further on, same story. Five more years went by and, yes, the pattern continued. Recent History Twenty games since then later. Twenty consecutive New Zealand victories. From Christchurch to Dunedin, from the Southern to Northern Hemisphere - the landscapes have changed but results remain consistent. During his tenure, Gregor Townsend has broken winless streaks in major European venues, but this challenge is different. This is 32 games across 120 years. One of sport's greatest hoodoos. Squad Updates Over the past seasons the landslide 20, 30 and 40-point wins have reduced to eight points, five points and eight points in 2014, 2017 and 2022, but New Zealand consistently prevail. Via their excellence, physical dominance, game management, they secure victory. As match day approaches where positive expectations that some may have held for a Scottish win is probably beginning to fade. Optimism meets historical reality. Missing Players Recent updates revealed that Zander Fagerson hadn't made it. To Scottish ambitions it was a significant setback. Fagerson hasn't played since April, but he's exceptional and if available then the long gap without a game would not have been a massive concern. In an era when most props are replaced long before the hour-mark, Fagerson's engine keeps running. Unmatched playing time in the Six Nations. Replacement Concerns Another absence is Jones but his replacement is in excellent form with his club. Fagerson's replacement presents concerns. While Rae is capable, his international experience consists of limited game time. And when Rae is finished, his replacement takes over. While competent, evidence is lacking that he's All Black-beating class. Coaching Choices The coach has made unexpected selections, some logical, some curious. Kyle Steyn's game-management intelligence replaces Duhan van der Merwe's more one-dimensional power. The back row has no recognisable truffle dog, Rory Darge starting on the bench. There's no Andy Onyeama-Christie in the 23. Historical Context Graham crossed the line in the narrow loss to New Zealand in the previous encounter Facing the Irish, New Zealand won the opening match of what they hope will be a Grand Slam tour. They took an age to get going, even when playing against 14 men, but their final surge did the trick. Combined with Irish vulnerabilities, their attack, their line-out and their scrum collapsing. By the Numbers Despite late-game surges, the last 20 minutes is not where the All Blacks do most of their damage. Across international matches going back three years, they've scored 87 tries in the first half and fewer after halftime. Strong opening performances, excellent second quarters, moderate third quarters and 34 in the fourth. They come exploding out of the traps. What Scotland Needs During their last meeting, they struck twice in the initial stages. Leading 14-0, victory seemed assured. Scotland recovered majestically to dominate temporarily. The lesson here is that, metaphorically, Scotland needs sustained pressure from kickoff - and keep it there. Over the last decade, successful opponents have needed to score in the upper twenties. Scottish scoring only occasionally against New Zealand. Final Analysis Everything has to go right for Townsend's team. Absolutely everything. If they start butchering chances early on then forget it. Disciplinary issues? A high penalty count? Set-piece struggles? The game is lost. With perfect execution? Explosive start. A raucous crowd. Electric atmosphere. Ruthlessness. Russell being Russell. Graham being Graham. Optimistic thinking, maybe. We haven't seen an 80 minutes from the Scottish team that would be sufficient against New Zealand. If the capability exists, now is the moment; a century is sufficient.